NFL playoff picture: Lions win North, are in hunt for first place in NFC; A crunching jaguar

The Detroit Lions won a division championship for the first time since 1993 on Sunday. Dan Campbell's team won the NFC North title in dramatic fashion, defeating the Minnesota Vikings 30-24.

Winning the division ensures the Lions will play at least one postseason game at Ford Field, and Detroit could potentially get a bye through the NFC playoffs with home-field advantage. If the San Francisco 49ers lose to the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night, the Lions and Niners will be tied at 11-4 through two games.

The 49ers will own the tiebreaker, but if San Francisco loses another game and Detroit wins, the Lions will take the bye. It wasn't a likely scenario as you're about to see, but the Lions won their first division title in 30 years. Anything is possible.

As for the rest of the NFL, Week 16 saw plenty of movement in the playoff picture. Let's see where things stand with the three games coming up on Monday.

All the listed odds to make the playoffs, get the No. 1 seed, and win the Super Bowl. AthleticThe NFL betting model was developed by Austin Mock.

AFC playoff picture

seed group Register Week 16 results

x–1

11-3

(TBD) vs. SF

x–2

11-4

W vs. DAL

3

9-5

(TBD) vs. Lv

4

8-7

L vs. tuberculosis

5

10-5

W vs. love

6

9-6

W vs. LAC

7

8-7

L vs. ATL

x — winning playoff berth | won the z-section title

Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback Lamar Jackson has one playoff win on his resume, and the Ravens have averaged 13 points in his four outings, so this will be a question mark in a few weeks. But if Jackson plays well Monday in a win over the San Francisco 49ers, it should go a long way to allaying some of those concerns.

Rest of the schedule: At 49ers, vs. Miami Dolphins, vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Contradictions: To make the playoffs: 100 percent | To get a bye: 52.6 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 14.3 percent

Go deeper

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Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins got their first win of the season against the Cowboys on Sunday, and got it with a clutch, game-winning drive just before the buzzer. That's huge, not just for a team vying for a seeding, but for the Dolphins to build confidence before the playoffs. A win Sunday in Baltimore puts them in position to clinch the No. 1 spot.

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Rest of the schedule: At Ravens, vs. Buffalo Bills

Contradictions: To make the playoffs: 100 percent | Get pie: 32 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 12.7 percent

The Chiefs haven't beaten a team with a winning record since they beat the Dolphins in London on Nov. 5. They'll have a chance to eradicate that problem next Sunday against the Bengals, but is the quarterback overweight when it comes to backing up such success? The Chiefs are vulnerable entering the postseason.

Rest of the schedule: vs. Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Contradictions: To make the playoffs: 99.7 percent | To get pie: 11.9 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 12 percent

The Jags are reeling with four straight losses, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence's injuries are piling up by the week. Their offensive woes over the past two weeks can be explained by injuries and Lawrence's lack of practice time, but the defense has been leaky, surrendering 29.5 points per game during the skid. Again, the Bucs scored three touchdowns on turnovers, so it became a widespread meltdown.

Rest of the schedule: vs. Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans

Contradictions: To make the playoffs: 68.5 percent | Get pie: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.7 percent

Quarterback Joe Flacco, who was sitting on his couch watching football five Sundays ago, has played three consecutive 300-yard games for the first time in his career. He hasn't had a 300-yard game in a season since 2016. A remarkable run.

Rest of the schedule: vs. the New York Jets at the Bengals

Contradictions: To make the playoffs: 100 percent | Get pie: 3.5 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 2.6 percent

Buffalo Bills

The Bills begin their three-game hitting streak in Kansas City and are shaping up to be as dangerous as any team in the AFC. There's also a chance to see the next chapter of the Bills-Chiefs mini-rivalry in the wild-card round.

Rest of the schedule: at New England Patriots, at Dolphins

Contradictions: To make the playoffs: 90.1 percent | Get pie: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 4.9 percent

The Colts laid an egg in Atlanta, 29-10, and now they're in a four-way tie with the Texans, Steelers and Bengals. The Colts must win and hope the tiebreakers work in their favor to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2020.

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Rest of the schedule: vs. Raiders vs. Houston Texans

Contradictions: To make the playoffs: 66.3 percent | Get pie: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1 percent

on the hunt

• Houston Texans (8-7)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
• Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)
• Denver Broncos (7-8)
• Las Vegas Raiders (6-8)

Deleted

• New York Jets (6-9)
• Tennessee Titans (5-10)
• Los Angeles Chargers (5-10)
• New England Patriots (4-11)


NFC playoff picture

seed group Register Week 16 results

z–1

11-3

(TBD) vs. BAL

z–2

11-4

W vs. MIN

x–3

10-4

(TBD) vs. NYG

4

8-7

W vs. JAX

x–5

10-5

L vs. MIA

6

8-7

W vs. NO

7

8-7

W vs. TEN

x — winning playoff berth | won the z-section title

San Francisco 49ers

The Niners' six-game winning streak has come against some impressive opponents, and they've already knocked off the Cowboys and Eagles this season. A win over the Ravens would cement the 49ers as the team to beat in the playoffs.

Rest of the schedule: vs. Ravens, Washington Commanders, vs. Los Angeles Rams

Contradictions: To make the playoffs: 100 percent | Get bye: 91.8 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 26.5 percent

Detroit Lions

The Lions finally won the NFC North and are making a playoff appearance for the first time in 30 years. They'll be looking for their first postseason win in 32 years — and second in the Super Bowl era. And in a tragic way, they'll have to go through fan favorite Matthew Stafford to do it.

Rest of the schedule: At Dallas Cowboys, vs. Minnesota Vikings

Contradictions: To make the playoffs: 100 percent | Pie gain: 5.6 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.4 percent

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are a prime example of why discussing a team's ability to go undefeated in October is suffocating. No one could have predicted the three-game losing streak, which included consistency issues on offense (16.3 points per game) and an overhaul of the defensive coaching staff. The Eagles have three winnable games before the playoffs, but they'll have to brace themselves against better competition in January.

Rest of the schedule: vs. New York Giants, vs. Arizona Cardinals, at Giants

Contradictions: To make the playoffs: 100 percent | Pie gain: 6.1 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 6.4 percent

The Bucs have won four in a row, but don't need to beat a quality opponent until they make a statement against the Jaguars. The Buccaneers won't have high expectations against the NFC East runner-up — or whoever wins the NFC South — but a playoff berth in a rebuilding year after a 4-7 start should be seen as a huge win in Tampa.

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Rest of the schedule: vs. New Orleans Saints at Panthers

Contradictions: To make the playoffs: 87.5 percent | Get pie: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.3 percent

Dallas Cowboys

With Sunday's loss at Miami, the Cowboys fell to 2-2 in one-possession games this season and have won just once (Week 13 against the Seahawks) when they trailed after the first quarter. Their lack of wins in tightly contested games will again be a concern in the playoffs.

Rest of the schedule: Vs. Lions, at Commanders

Contradictions: To make the playoffs: 100 percent | Get pie: 0.5 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 7.5 percent

Go deeper

The Cowboys insist confidence is high after their second straight loss — both on the road

Los Angeles Rams

There was little reason to believe the Rams would be in this position when they were 3-6, but they have won five of six since their bye week. Playoffs.

Rest of the schedule: At Giants, at age 49

Contradictions: To make the playoffs: 68.4 percent | Get pie: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.3 percent

Go deeper

Puga Nagua shows why he's in the Offensive ROY conversation in primetime as Rams roll

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks haven't scored many style points, but they've proven their ability to win close games, including game-winning drives by quarterbacks Geno Smith and Drew Lock in the past two outings. If they can stay healthy for the playoffs, this physical team will be an enviable opponent, withstanding tough opponents.

Rest of the schedule: vs. Steelers, at Cardinals

Contradictions: To make the playoffs: 67.3 percent | Get pie: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 0.9 percent

on the hunt

• Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
• Atlanta Falcons (7-8)
• Green Bay Packers (7-8)
• New Orleans Saints (7-8)
• Chicago Bears (6-9)
• New York Giants (5-9)

Deleted

• Washington Commanders (4-11)
• Arizona Cardinals (3-12)
• Carolina Panthers (2-13)

(Top photo by Jared Goff: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)


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